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"Electricity and Conflict: An Evaluation of Distributed Co-Generation as an Economic and Reliable Solution"

Hisham Zerriffi, Hadi Dowlatabadi, and Neil Strachan.

The record of the conflicts in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Lebanon indicates the need to consider deliberate attacks when planning electric power systems in areas with the potential for conflict. It is hypothesized that a distributed system based primarily upon natural gas cogeneration facilities will be more economical and robust. A previously developed green-field system optimization model found that distributed cogeneration using internal combustion natural gas fired engines was the lowest cost option to supply both electricity and heat, resulting in substantial savings. This analysis will be augmented with a robustness engineering analysis. To determine the reliability advantages of distributed generation, a Monte Carlo simulation was developed to conduct generating capacity adequacy assessments. The model was used to determine the Loss of Load Expectation (hr/yr.) and Loss of Energy Expectation (MWh/yr.) for both a standard test system (consisting of 32 generating units) and for a system consisting of 284 identical 12 MW units. In order to simulate the effects of conflict on the system, the mean time to repair for each unit was increased and the reliability indices re-calculated. The results show that the system consisting of a large number of smaller units is up to 5 times less sensitive to changes in the MTTR.

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