Publications
CEIC-01-04
"Electricity and Conflict: An
Evaluation of Distributed Co-Generation as an Economic and Reliable
Solution"
Hisham Zerriffi, Hadi Dowlatabadi, and Neil
Strachan. Abstract:
The record of the conflicts in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Lebanon indicates the
need to consider deliberate attacks when planning electric power systems in
areas with the potential for conflict. It is hypothesized that a distributed
system based primarily upon natural gas cogeneration facilities will be more
economical and robust. A previously developed green-field system optimization
model found that distributed cogeneration using internal combustion natural
gas fired engines was the lowest cost option to supply both electricity and
heat, resulting in substantial savings. This analysis will be augmented with a
robustness engineering analysis. To determine the reliability advantages of
distributed generation, a Monte Carlo simulation was developed to conduct
generating capacity adequacy assessments. The model was used to determine the
Loss of Load Expectation (hr/yr.) and Loss of Energy Expectation (MWh/yr.) for
both a standard test system (consisting of 32 generating units) and for a
system consisting of 284 identical 12 MW units. In order to simulate the
effects of conflict on the system, the mean time to repair for each unit was
increased and the reliability indices re-calculated. The results show that the
system consisting of a large number of smaller units is up to 5 times less
sensitive to changes in the MTTR.
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