Publications
CEIC0408
"Phase Transitions in the Probability of Cascading
Failures"
Huaiwei Liao, Jay Apt, Sarosh Talukdar
Abstract:
A cascading failure can be thought of as an alternating sequence of
equipmentoutages and threshold crossings. This paper studies the
probability of such failures in two simple models of electric power
networks. The experimental results display phase transitionslarge and
abrupt changes in the probability of a cascading failure with only small
changes in network stress. We conjecture that such phase transitions
also occur in actual power networks. If this conjecture is true, online
techniques for assessing the risk of cascading failures could be based
on searching the neighborhood of the current operating point for the
nearest phase transition.
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