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CEIC-13-02

Forecasting For Direct Load Control In Energy Markets
Shira Horowitz, Brandon Mauch, and Fallaw Sowell

Abstract:
A doubly censored Tobit model is used to forecast hourly air-conditioner usage for individual households. The model is appropriate for a range of temperatures so it is possible to accurately forecast the electricity load to help balance the electricity grid in new settings, eg. solar and wind generation. Individual models are simulated and summed to obtain aggregate forecasts and confidence intervals. The model allows for correlation between the individual shocks that occur in a region. This approach gives substantially more accurate results than the moving average method typically used for forecasting and measuring direct load control.

 

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