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2006-07 Seminars
Effects of Plug-In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles in California Energy Markets
Alexander E. Farrell
Energy and Resources Group, UC Berkeley
Abstract
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) can run
in all-electric mode with grid-supplied electricity
or in hybrid electric mode with liquid fuels. We
use 1999 California electricity market data to show
that millions of PHEVs could charge economically
during both peak and off-peak hours with real-time
electricity pricing and modest gasoline prices.
However, the present value of fuel cost savings at
current prices is probably smaller than the
magnitude of potential marginal vehicle costs. We
simulate the effects of large PHEV fleets on the
system load curve under three charging scenarios and
find that 1 million compact car PHEVs would not
significantly affect the system peak. Larger fleets
could require the expansion of system capacity if
not charged during the hours of lowest demand. Our
forecasts of possible PHEV adoption suggest that
only in the most aggressive transition scenarios
would there be several million PHEVs in California
within a decade.
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