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2008-09 Seminars
Assessing the Ultimate Production of Oil, Gas,
and Coal, and the Implications for Fossil-fuel
Alternatives and Climate Change
David Rutledge
Tomiyasu Professor of Electrical Engineering
California Institute of Technology
Abstract
An accurate estimate of the ultimate production
of oil, gas, and coal would be helpful for the
ongoing policy discussion on alternatives to fossil
fuels and climate change. By ultimate production, we
mean total production, past and future. It takes a
long time to develop energy infrastructure, and this
means it matters whether we have burned 20% of our
oil, gas, and coal, or 40%. In modeling climate
change, the carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels
is the most important factor. The time frame for the
climate response is much longer than the time frame
for burning fossil fuels, and this means that the
total amount burned is more important than the rate
of burning. Oil, gas, and coal ultimates are
traditionally estimated by government geological
surveys from measurements of oil and gas reservoirs
and coal seams, together with an allowance for
future discoveries of oil and gas. We will see that
where these estimates can be tested, they tend to be
too high, and that more accurate estimates can be
made by curve fits to the production history.
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