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2012 -13 Seminars


The Exxon Mobile Energy Outlook: A View to 2040

David Khemakhem
Energy and Technology Advisor
ExxonMobil

Abstract
Our world runs on energy – it’s fundamental to our way of life and growing our economy. But as the world changes, global and regional energy landscapes will continue to evolve and transform. Providing reliable and affordable energy to support human progress -- safely and with minimum impact on the environment -- is an on-going challenge around the world. The scale and nature of this challenge is readily apparent in ExxonMobil’s Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, our long-term global forecast of energy supply and demand trends. The Outlook reveals key findings about how we use energy, how much we will need in the future and what types of fuels will meet demand. For example: -Energy demand in developing (Non OECD) nations will rise 65 percent by 2040 compared to 2010, reflecting growing prosperity and expanding economies. Overall, global energy demand will grow 35 percent, even with significant efficiency gains, as the world’s population expands to nearly 9 billion people. -Today, electricity generation represents the largest driver of demand for energy. Through 2040, it will account for more than half of the rise in global energy demand. -Growth in transportation sector demand will be led by expanding commercial activity as our economies grow. However, global energy used for personal vehicles will gradually peak and then begin to fall as cars become much more fuel-efficient. -Technology is enabling the safe development of once hard-to-produce energy resources, significantly expanding available supplies. Oil and natural gas will supply about 60 percent of global energy demand in 2040. Use of nuclear power and renewable energy will also grow, while demand for coal will peak around 2025 and then gradually decline. -Evolving demand and supply patterns will open the door for increased global trade opportunities. The changing energy landscape, in conjunction with an abundance of free trade opportunities, will help lead to more choices and creation of value that helps fuel economic growth and improve living standards worldwide. -Gains in efficiency across economies worldwide through energy-saving practices and technologies will significantly reduce demand growth and curb emissions. Global energy-related CO2 emissions will peak around 2030, and then gradually decline. The Outlook provides a window to the future, a view that ExxonMobil uses to guide our own strategies and investments. The information contained in the Outlook regarding energy markets is also crucial for individuals, businesses, and policymakers. We hope that by sharing this Outlook, we can enhance understanding of energy issues so that we can all make informed decisions about our energy future.

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